tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21098869.post8970800981698537282..comments2024-03-28T13:48:12.219+00:00Comments on Alan in Belfast: Election afternoon tea-break thoughtsAlan in Belfast (Alan Meban)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04647690758839987063noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21098869.post-42405356005468137852007-03-08T22:44:00.000+00:002007-03-08T22:44:00.000+00:00To address my first bullet point, Lunn has taken t...To address my first bullet point, Lunn has taken the fourth seat in Lagan Valley, leaving three level-pegging DUP candidates to fight it out for the last two seats!<BR/><BR/>Purvis looks safe in East Belfast, though I was wrong in the other aspect - <A HREF="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2007/nielection/html/42.stm" REL="nofollow">DUP trounced UUP in first preference votes</A>.Alan in Belfast (Alan Meban)https://www.blogger.com/profile/04647690758839987063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21098869.post-41628784334486538752007-03-08T16:58:00.000+00:002007-03-08T16:58:00.000+00:00I think it's unlikely that the UUP vote will excee...I think it's unlikely that the UUP vote will exceed the DUP vote in East Belfast. A lot of moderate unionists just vote Alliance I think.<BR/><BR/>What's interesting (well, a <I>bit</I> interesting) is to look back at the Westminster election results for East Belfast. In 1979, Peter Robinson took the seat for the first time for the DUP, with about 15,000 votes. UUP and Alliance were on 14,000 and 13,000 respectively, so even a tiny amount of tactical voting would have lost the DUP the seat.<BR/><BR/>So far so clear. What's curious is that since then, Robinson's vote has stayed more or less steady at 15,000 to 16,000. But the Alliance and UUP vote has collapsed, so that in the last few elections, their combined votes just about exceed the DUP vote, so it would be almost impossible to dislodge Robinson (if one sought such an outcome). What happened in between?John Selfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761816149593541133noreply@blogger.com